This March Madness, I have UCLA winning their twelfth men’s basketball championship. Led by freshman sensation Lonzo Ball, the Bruins have the best eight-man rotation in college basketball. Ball has made UCLA basketball great again. With their up-tempo offense and artistic ball movement, they will be a tough out for any team. But behind their high-powered offense are several issues that may stop the Bruins form cutting down the nets in Glendale.

Why UCLA will win

1. Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball is undoubtedly the best UCLA freshman since Kevin Love donned the blue and gold in 2007-2008 season—the last year UCLA made it to the Final Four. Ball is the epitome of a floor general. If UCLA is coldl from the floor, Ball will pull up from 30 feet and drain a three with a hand in his face. If UCLA’s ball movement is stagnant, he lights up the offense with a dazzling pass that inspires his teammates to start moving. With Lonzo Ball in the game, it’s difficult to ever count the Bruins out.

2. Depth, Depth, Depth

With Aaron Holiday, GG Goloman, and Ike Anibogou, UCLA arguably has the best eight-man rotation in college basketball. Their ability to come off the bench and spark the Bruins has the gas on the pedal the entire forty minutes of a game.

3. UCLA can stretch the floor

All of UCLA’s starters can shoot. So, if you’re playing the Bruins, pick your poison. Play airtight defense of the perimeter, and risk your man going back door for an easy dunk. Give your man more than a foot of room, risk him draining a shot in your face. Even big men Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf can hit from the perimeter. The Bruins’ ability to shoot from anywhere makes their offense—the top scoring in the nation—nearly impossible to stop.

Why they won’t win

1. The Dirty South

UCLA is in a brutal region. As a three seed, they will likely face a good Cincy team in the second round. If they make it to the Sweet 16, they will likely either take on against Kentucky or Wichita State—two excellent teams. And they would probably face North Carolina if they make it to the Elite Eight. Simply, UCLA faces a tough road to the Final Four. It will not be easy to navigate through this maze.

2. Defense

Everyone knows that UCLA can shoot. And everyone knows that UCLA has struggled defensively. Since getting throbbed by USC in February, UCLA has tightened it up on the defensive end. Their zone defense has been surprisingly improved. But it is still unclear whether the Bruins have the heart of the defensive side to carry them through March.

3. You Live by the Three, You Die by the Three

Anyone who has ever played basketball knows this maxim. Even Steph Curry has an off game occasionally. And in March, it only takes one off game to end your season.